1 COVID patient can infect 406 people in 30 days says ICMR


Lav Agarwal, an official from health ministry, said the study indicated that 1 COVID-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days if he/she doesn’t follow lockdown. In medical terms- this phenomenon is known as R-naught- or R0, is a virus’s basic reproductive number — an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness of infectious agents.

With preventive measures in place, the possibility of the infection can be reduced to an average of just two-and-a-half persons per patient in the same period, Agarwal said.

Citing the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) study, Agarwal said that the current ‘R0’ or R naught for the coronavirus infection is somewhere between 1.5 and 4.

“If we take the ‘R0’ to be 2.5 then one positive person can infect 406 people in 30 days, if the lockdown and social distancing measures are not in place, but if social exposure is reduced by 75 per cent then that one sick person will only be able to infect only 2.5 persons,” Agarwal said, highlighting the importance of the ongoing 21-day lockdown and social distancing.

Leveraging the smart infrastructure, cities are developing predictive analytics using heat maps and taking action in monitoring the movements (using geo-fencing) as well as periodic health status of suspected cases, said Agarwal.

Reviewing the strategy of cluster containment, the official added that the strategy is producing positive results, especially in Agra, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Pathanamthitta, Bhilwara & East Delhi.

He also added that the Smart Cities are ensuring collaborated efforts to monitor the suspected cases of COVID-19. Adding further he said that the government has managed to build three kinds of centres exclusively for covid management.

A. Covid care centres for mild cases and suspect cases will include schools, colleges, hotels converted into quarantine facilities. It will have one hospital in the vicinity to recommend patients with more severe symptoms to other care facilities.

B. Dedicated covid Health centres For cases showing moderate symptoms will have full hospitals or dedicated block in hospital with separate entry/exit.Every bed must have oxygen support system.

C. Dedicated covid hospitals for critical cases and ageing patients- Full hospitals or dedicated block in hospital with separate entry/exit. Every bed must have oxygen support system fully equipped ventilators and ICU facilities.

Earlier in the day, Ministry of External Affairs said that it will lift the export ban for India’s neighbouring countries and those who are largely impacted by Covid-19.